Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 16.421895 18.708354 21.158729 23.975486 27.119201 30.515023 34.455848
2025-08-03 12.698656 15.754335 19.274804 23.612034 28.791758 34.758288 42.129135
2025-08-10 10.907437 14.295808 18.384093 23.645333 30.197889 38.048282 48.119417
2025-08-17 9.600069 13.218556 17.768228 23.853093 31.714571 41.458871 54.370901
2025-08-24 8.501946 12.229414 17.089357 23.811263 32.775549 44.215281 59.796955
2025-08-31 7.546967 11.307878 16.379537 23.614707 33.547012 46.561307 64.732489
2025-09-07 6.862486 10.673707 15.973469 23.748502 34.702907 49.398280 70.372107
2025-09-14 6.441164 10.364220 15.973061 24.410791 36.577620 53.243554 77.494783
2025-09-21 5.820043 9.693568 15.389400 24.177124 37.145474 55.281318 82.181314
2025-09-28 5.068117 8.748260 14.318731 23.138131 36.463448 55.493242 84.268034
2025-10-05 4.824975 8.577597 14.394429 23.800207 38.285640 59.325058 91.634559
2025-10-12 4.565543 8.354268 14.364994 24.285481 39.848288 62.823269 98.631934
2025-10-19 4.196316 7.922893 13.985073 24.212996 40.577590 65.157616 104.073780
2025-10-26 3.820188 7.445343 13.493597 23.925734 40.948731 66.960590 108.787861
2025-11-02 3.539339 7.106869 13.201560 23.931943 41.763485 69.445479 114.597088
2025-11-09 3.322257 6.862793 13.048402 24.151494 42.919963 72.489795 121.363606
2025-11-16 3.081538 6.551836 12.753965 24.105901 43.626460 74.838336 127.111099
2025-11-23 2.839792 6.215819 12.388441 23.908325 44.057457 76.747927 132.213395
2025-11-30 2.668036 5.999852 12.221551 24.043198 45.045434 79.577635 138.866211
2025-12-07 2.582479 5.948358 12.351986 24.712883 46.975608 84.009259 148.251885
2025-12-14 2.385701 5.650712 11.998339 24.476609 47.307218 85.796176 153.355329
2025-12-21 2.108625 5.157227 11.232659 23.426220 46.137095 85.005361 154.140819
2025-12-28 2.051156 5.131298 11.377110 24.095569 48.079482 89.557168 164.012841